Fri, Aug 11|
August 2023 PECD Lunch & Presentation
Speaker: Rob Quigley, VSO Topic: My Own Worst Enemy – A Journey Toward Taming Overconfidence in Reserves Estimates
Time & Location
Aug 11, 11:30 AM – 1:00 PM CDT
Dallas, 1900 N Akard St, Dallas, TX 75201, USA
About the event
Can we truly rely on reserves reports? When a proved reserves report is signed and stamped, the implicit message is one of confidence – a conviction that actual forecasts will exceed projections with a high likelihood (~90% probability). Yet, the paradox emerges: why do we frequently observe well results falling short of these expectations? A fundamental truth surfaces – a deeply ingrained human inclination toward overconfidence in our predictions.
In this presentation, Rob Quigley will discuss the topic that reserves estimators need to start confronting - despite our best efforts, a natural tendency toward overconfidence persists. This truth will be revealed in hard data from SEC reserves disclosures!
Embark on a journey of discovery as Mr. Quigley offers a compelling proposition for mitigating this inherent bias and elevating the accuracy of reserves estimates.
Be prepared to have your own ability to account for uncertainty put to the test.
Mr. Quigley is a Managing Director at VSO and Head of the Dallas Office. He joined the firm in 2014 and leads a team to provide petroleum engineering consulting services to clients. Rob has extensive evaluation experience in every major basin in the Lower 48 and Gulf of Mexico providing both reserves reports and technical due diligence to E&P and financial firms.
Prior to joining VSO, Mr. Quigley was a part of Encana Oil & Gas and served in Encana’s Mid Continent business unit. Rob is a 2013 graduate of Texas A&M University (Magna Cum Laude) with a B.S. Degree in Petroleum Engineering. He is a Member of the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), Dallas Petroleum Club, Petroleum Engineers Club of Dallas, and ADAM Energy Forum – Dallas. Mr. Quigley has co-authored an SPE technical paper on the topic of horizontal well spacing (URTeC: 5058).
In 2023 the Petroleum Engineers Club of Dallas will aim to meet on the 2nd Friday of every month (a few exceptions will happen and are noted on the club calendar). Follow us on LinkedIn for up-to-day announcements and join our email list for all club news. All club meetings will include networking time, lunch, and a speaker/presentation.
Once you register, we will have your RSVP information. No need to print any tickets, we will have your RSVP and payment status available to us at check-in.
- Early RSVP (Member): $30
- Early RSVP (Non-member): $35
- Late RSVP (Member): $35
- Late RSVP (Non-member): $40
- GOLD Member: Free
Early bird discount prices will be the default price for all tickets up until the Tuesday before the Friday meeting (the headcount cut-off date for the Dallas Petroleum Club).
As always please invite coworkers, friends, and anyone who would be interested. Reach out to one of the board members directly or email us at firstname.lastname@example.org with any questions.
- The PECD Board
Registration, Check-In, & Networking