August 2023 PECD Lunch & Presentation

Presentation Information:

Can we truly rely on reserves reports? When a proved reserves report is signed and stamped, the implicit message is one of confidence – a conviction that actual forecasts will exceed projections with a high likelihood (~90% probability). Yet, the paradox emerges: why do we frequently observe well results falling short of these expectations? A fundamental truth surfaces – a deeply ingrained human inclination toward overconfidence in our predictions.

In this presentation, Rob Quigley will discuss the topic that reserves estimators need to start confronting - despite our best efforts, a natural tendency toward overconfidence persists. This truth will be revealed in hard data from SEC reserves disclosures!

Embark on a journey of discovery as Mr. Quigley offers a compelling proposition for mitigating this inherent bias and elevating the accuracy of reserves estimates.

Be prepared to have your own ability to account for uncertainty put to the test.